S&P 500 stuck near 7,700 as index tests support at 7,638
The S&P 500 closed at 7,691 on 19 October, down 1.5% over the past week and 1.0% over the past four weeks. The close sits just 0.2% below the 50-day moving average and 5.7% above the 200-day moving average, putting price roughly between the two.
The daily trend reads as Range under the rule applied here, since the close is not consistently above or below both moving averages together. The 50-day average, at 7,705, is still rising. The most recent confirmed swing high is 7,845 from 6 October, also the 52-week high, and the most recent confirmed swing low is 7,617 from 1 October, close to the 52-week low of 6,317 set on 30 March. On the weekly chart, the close sits just below the 10-week average of 7,704 and well above the 40-week average of 7,303.
RSI stands at 47, near the midpoint of its range and not pointing to overbought or oversold conditions. The last five daily closes show a drift lower from 7,805 to 7,691, with a dip to 7,659 along the way. Average daily range (ATR 14) is 71 points, a useful gauge of typical day-to-day movement in the current conditions.
A daily close below support at 7,638, and then the next level at 7,617, would signal weakness toward the recent swing low area. A daily close above resistance at 7,772, and then 7,794, would put the 52-week high of 7,845 back in focus. A sustained move back above the 50-day average would also suggest the balance is tilting higher.
Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, last at 199,000, a timely read on labour conditions. Friday's flash composite PMI and consumer sentiment, following a prior composite reading of 58.4, offer a broader growth signal. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 27-28 October, with markets pricing an 83% chance of rates held, looms just beyond this week.
- Daily prices: Yahoo Finance (^GSPC); trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis