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The calendar, the numbers, and what moved.

Markets move on the gap between actual and consensus, not on the number itself. A “good” number that was expected does nothing. A “bad” number that was less bad than feared can rally the market.

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REACTION NOTEWednesday, 15:19 UTC · Event desk

US crude stockpiles fall 1.9M barrels, more than expected

US crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week reported, released Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:30 GMT. That compared with a consensus forecast of a 0.3 million barrel draw and followed a 3.06 million barrel decline the prior week.

The reported fall was 1.6 million barrels larger than forecast, pointing to a steeper drop in stockpiles than markets had anticipated.

In the 30 minutes that followed, currency and equity markets showed only modest moves. EUR/USD rose 7 pips from 1.1131 to 1.1138, while GBP/USD gained 9 pips to 1.3300. USD/JPY edged down 4 pips to 158.16.

Gold futures were little changed, slipping 0.01% to 4054.60, while S&P 500 E-mini futures eased 0.06% to 7762.25, trading within a range of 7759.25 to 7771.25.

Crude oil inventory data is watched for signals on US energy demand and supply balances, which can influence oil-sensitive currencies and broader risk sentiment, though the moves following this release were limited across the markets Praevis tracks.

Moves: last price before the release to the price 30 minutes later, from 1-minute data (Yahoo Finance); S&P 500 = E-mini futures, gold = COMEX futures.

EUR/USD 30M
+7 pips
S&P 500 FUT 30M
−0.06%
Read the full reaction note →

Earlier reaction notes

Bank of Canada hikes to 2.50%, its first rise since 2023; CAD steady28 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC · 2.50%, as expectedUK Budget cuts fiscal headroom to £15B; sterling barely moves28 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · £15B headroom, as expectedRBNZ holds rate at 2.75%, below 3.00% forecast28 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · −0.25pp below forecastAustralia CPI rises to 4.3% y/y, above the 4.2% forecast28 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · +0.1pp above forecastUS consumer confidence jumps to 91.7 as new home sales beat forecasts27 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · +10.5 above forecastUS durable goods orders rise 1.8% in September, below 2.0% forecast27 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · −0.2pp below forecastJapan’s BoJ core CPI rises to 2.5%, up from 2.3%27 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTCUS jobless claims fall to 194K, below the 200K forecast22 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · −6k below forecastUK inflation rises to 3.5% in September, above 3.4% forecast21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · +0.1pp above forecast