EUR/USD stays under pressure below 1.1472 as downtrend holds
EUR/USD last closed at 1.1213 on 20 October, up 0.5% over the past week but down 2.2% over the past four weeks. The close sits 2.2% below the 50-day moving average and 3.2% below the 200-day moving average, keeping price firmly under both reference lines even after the modest weekly gain.
The daily trend reads Down, with the close below the 50-day average, which is itself below the 200-day average, and that 50-day average has been falling over the past 10 sessions. The most recent confirmed swing high stands at 1.1654 (9 September) and swing low at 1.1567 (2 September). Price remains well within the 52-week range of 1.1114 to 1.2024, with the low set just last week. On the weekly chart, the close is below both the 10-week average of 1.1432 and the 40-week average of 1.1572, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend. Nearest resistance is 1.1472, with 1.1623 above that; nearest support is 1.1114.
The 14-day RSI reads 33, close to the 30 level many traders watch as a sign of oversold conditions. The last five daily closes have been tightly bunched between 1.1195 and 1.1225, showing limited directional follow-through this week. Average daily range (ATR 14) is 0.0074, suggesting typical daily moves of roughly three-quarters of a cent at current levels.
A daily close back above the 1.1472 resistance level, or a move back above the 50-day moving average, would signal a shift away from the current downtrend and put the 1.1623 swing high in focus next. Conversely, a daily close below the 1.1114 support would mark a fresh low for the 52-week range, keeping the broader down structure intact.
The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 27-28 October is the key event for this market, with futures markets currently pricing an 83% chance that rates are held steady. The decision and accompanying statement can shift expectations for the US dollar broadly, which tends to carry through directly into EUR/USD.
- Daily prices: Yahoo Finance (EURUSD=X); trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis