Gold stays under 4,171 resistance as the down trend holds
Gold closed Monday's session at 4,143, down 0.8% over the past week and 5.3% over the past four weeks. The close sits 5.1% below the 50-day moving average and 8.7% below the 200-day moving average, keeping price firmly under both reference lines that traders watch for trend direction.
The daily trend reads Down, with the close under a falling 50-day average of 4,364, itself under the 200-day average of 4,539. The most recent confirmed swing high is 4,242 from October 12, and the most recent confirmed swing low is 4,091 from October 7. Price remains well inside the 52-week range of 3,901 to 5,586. On the weekly chart, the close also sits below both the 10-week average (4,355) and the 40-week average (4,532), consistent with the daily picture.
RSI(14) is at 40, below the midpoint and not far from the 30 level some traders call oversold. The last five daily closes have ranged from 4,108 to 4,181, showing choppy, two-way trade rather than a smooth slide. Average daily range (ATR 14) is 69, which gives a sense of typical day-to-day movement right now.
A daily close back above the 4,171 resistance would put the next reference level, 4,216, in focus and suggest the down trend is losing force. A daily close below the 4,091 support would put the next level, 4,046, in focus. A sustained close back above the 50-day average would also call the current Down trend reading into question.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 27-28 October. Markets are currently pricing an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady, per the CME FedWatch Tool, making both the inflation data and the meeting itself relevant for gold this week.
- Daily prices: Yahoo Finance (GC=F); trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis. Yahoo has no spot gold series; COMEX gold futures (front month) are used, which trade a few dollars above spot.