USD/JPY stuck between 156.40 and 159.00 as range holds
USD/JPY closed at 158.16, down 0.2% over the past week but up 0.5% over the past four weeks. The pair sits just above its 50-day average of 157.69 (+0.3%) and just below its 200-day average of 158.56 (-0.3%), leaving it sandwiched between the two.
The daily trend reads as Range, since the close is not holding consistently above or below both moving averages. The 50-day average is falling over the last 10 sessions, while the 200-day average sits just above the current close. The most recent confirmed swing high is 159.00 from 24 September, and the most recent confirmed swing low is 156.40 from 30 September, the same levels marking current resistance and support. On the weekly chart, price is close to both the 10-week average (157.56) and the 40-week average (158.54), reinforcing the sense of a market without a clear weekly direction. The 52-week range runs from 152.18 to 163.98.
RSI stands at 54, in the middle of its range and not pointing to overbought or oversold conditions. The last five daily closes have stayed in a tight band from 157.81 to 158.32, showing limited day-to-day movement. Average daily range (ATR 14) is 0.77, a useful gauge of how far price typically moves in a session when assessing whether a given day's move is unusually large or small.
A daily close back above 159.00 would put the next reference level, 159.78, in focus, while a daily close below 156.40 would put 155.26 in focus. A sustained move back above the 200-day average, or below the 50-day average, would also help clarify whether the pair is settling into a clearer trend rather than this current range.
The Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 27-28 October is in focus, with markets pricing an 83% chance rates are held. The Bank of Japan meets 29-30 October, with rates expected to stay at 1.25% but watch for any upgrade to the FY2027 inflation forecast, which could affect how traders read the policy path.
- Daily prices: Yahoo Finance (JPY=X); trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis