World Bank raises 2027 copper price forecast 18% to $13,000 a tonne
The World Bank now expects copper to average $13,000 per tonne in 2027, up 18% from its April estimate, as new mine supply struggles to match demand from power grids and data centres.
The new figure, about $5.90 per pound, is only 1.5% below the $13,200 average the bank projects for this year, according to its October outlook released Wednesday. The World Bank’s deputy chief economist, Ayhan Kose, said commodity markets are facing simultaneous shocks, with higher energy costs and trade disruptions pushing up prices broadly and adding pressure on inflation, food security and growth.
The bank’s metals and minerals index, which covers base metals and iron ore but not precious metals, is expected to climb 25% this year before easing 3.3% in 2027 — still 16% above its 2021 peak. Long project timelines, concentrated refining capacity and investment shifting toward metal-intensive industries all help explain why prices are seen staying elevated, even though global copper demand actually slipped slightly in the first half of this year. Supply has tightened instead because of mine disruptions and metal flowing into US warehouses amid tariff uncertainty, which had pushed Comex prices above London Metal Exchange levels before that gap narrowed by September.
Mine output growth should stay limited as Indonesia faces weather disruptions and Chile deals with declining ore grades, while demand is expected to strengthen in 2027-28 on investment in electricity networks, data centres and electric vehicles. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s August ban on copper concentrate exports adds another layer of supply risk, though exemptions may soften its effect.
Other metals saw mixed revisions: the bank lifted its 2027 tin forecast 22% to $45,000 a tonne and zinc 13% to $3,100, though both are still expected to fall from current-year averages. Iron ore forecasts were left unchanged at $95 a dry tonne for 2027. Gold is projected to average $4,250 per ounce next year, down from $4,600 this year, while silver is seen falling to $62 an ounce from $70.
Higher industrial metal prices matter for commodity-linked currencies and mining equities, while shifts in the gold and silver outlook can influence safe-haven demand and precious-metals positioning. Changes to the bank’s energy assumptions, including Brent crude easing to $79 a barrel in 2027, also feed into broader inflation and input-cost expectations across markets.
Source: Mining.com