US GDP growth beats forecast at 3.4%, core inflation ticks up
Advance third-quarter GDP rose 3.4% annualised, above the 3.2% consensus, while the core PCE price index held at 0.3% month-on-month and rose to 3.1% year-on-year.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released advance third-quarter GDP and the core PCE price index at 12:30 GMT on Thursday 29 October 2026. GDP grew 3.4% quarter-on-quarter at an annualised rate, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% in the second quarter. The BEA said investment, consumer spending and government spending drove the increase, partly offset by lower exports.
The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching consensus and up from 0.2% previously. The year-on-year figure for September came in at 3.1%, also in line with forecast and up from 3.0% in the prior reading. Headline PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year on year from 3.4%, and personal spending rose 0.5% in September, just below the 0.6% forecast. Separately, initial jobless claims were 194K, below the 198K forecast and unchanged from the week before.
The dollar firmed modestly in the 30 minutes after the release. EUR/USD fell 12 pips from 1.1143 to 1.1131, trading in a 1.1131-1.1152 range. GBP/USD slipped 8 pips to 1.3319, while USD/JPY edged up 3 pips to 158.06.
Gold futures fell 0.09% to 4031.90, with a range of 4027.80 to 4043.90. S&P 500 E-mini futures rose 0.03% to 7757.75, ranging between 7744.50 and 7761.25.
With growth beating forecasts and inflation firm but in line, the data gave no reason to doubt the rate hike markets expect from the Fed in December, a day after two Fed officials voted for an immediate increase.
Moves: last price before the release to the price 30 minutes later, from 1-minute data (Yahoo Finance); S&P 500 = E-mini futures, gold = COMEX futures. Sources: BEA, GDP advance estimate, Q3 2026; Benzinga