Hormuz attacks jump to over 30 in October as Brent crude holds near $115
Maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz more than doubled in October to over 30 incidents, keeping Brent crude near $115 a barrel as Iran-related tensions and a separate Saudi-Houthi conflict escalate.
October has brought the sharpest rise in maritime attacks since the US-Iran conflict began eight months ago, with more than 30 incidents logged in and around the Strait of Hormuz, up from 14 the previous month. The latest target was a crude tanker inside Iraq’s exclusive economic zone, suggesting vessels no longer need to be sneaking through Hormuz itself to come under fire.
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have borne the brunt, accounting for 28% of drone and missile strikes in the Persian Gulf; the 32 ships hit represent close to 4% of the entire global VLCC fleet. Shipping costs reflect the risk: a Saudi Arabia-to-China voyage still runs about $33 per barrel in freight, while regional demurrage charges have climbed since mid-August to $1,000,000 a day. UKMTO, which issues maritime security alerts, said tracking the strikes has become harder as vessels try to transit quietly and charterers avoid drawing attention that could push freight rates higher still.
Separately, the Saudi-Houthi conflict appears to be building its own momentum, adding a second source of regional risk alongside the Hormuz standoff. Qatar and Pakistan are reportedly trying to mediate between Washington and Tehran, which has so far kept ICE Brent crude capped near $115 a barrel.
Why it matters for markets: Continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and rising freight and insurance costs add a geopolitical risk premium to oil, keeping Brent crude and WTI crude elevated and volatile. Any further escalation around the US midterm elections could tighten global crude supply chains, with knock-on effects for energy stocks and currencies of oil-importing economies.
Source: OilPrice.com