European gas prices break above €100/MWh on supply fears
Dutch TTF natural gas futures jumped 4.85% to settle above €100/MWh for the first time since 2022, as traders weigh disrupted Middle East LNG supply and colder weather ahead of the 2026/27 winter.
ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson pointed to several factors squeezing the market. Persian Gulf LNG flows remain constrained, with little sign of near-term improvement, and the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran after next week’s US midterm elections could worsen the outlook further.
QatarEnergy has reportedly extended force majeure for several buyers through the end of the year, meaning supply disruptions are stretching deeper into the heating season just as demand typically peaks.
Weather forecasts now point to colder-than-usual conditions across Northwest Europe starting next week, which should lift heating demand and accelerate storage withdrawals. EU gas inventories currently stand just under 75% full.
Patterson said the central question is whether elevated prices will curb consumption. Power markets are already well into the range where utilities switch from gas to coal, and industrial gas use is showing early signs of softening, including reduced consumption among European chemical producers.
Positioning data reflects the bullish shift: investment funds raised their net long position in TTF by 14.3 TWh over the latest reporting week to 207.4 TWh, driven mainly by fresh buying as gross longs rose by just over 20 TWh while gross shorts also increased slightly.
Why it matters for markets: Higher European natural gas prices feed directly into regional power costs and industrial input costs, with knock-on effects for the euro, European equity indices, and energy-sensitive sectors. A tighter gas-to-coal switching range can also lift demand for coal and carbon allowances, while any escalation involving Iran adds a geopolitical risk premium that can spill over into broader energy markets, including Brent crude.
Sources: FXStreet; DTN Progressive Farmer