Japan’s exports grow 16.7% in September, missing forecasts
Japanese exports climbed 16.7% from a year earlier in September, a 13th consecutive monthly gain but below the 20.1% rise economists had expected, according to Ministry of Finance data.
The pace also slowed from August’s 19.3% increase. Chip and semiconductor-related shipments kept driving growth as global spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure remained strong, while Japanese firms continued raising prices to offset higher costs, lifting export values further.
Shipments to the United States rose 22.9% on the year, and exports to China increased 8.6%.
Imports grew 18.9%, undershooting the 19.6% forecast and well below August’s 28% jump. The slowdown was largely tied to oil: crude cargoes were delayed after tankers avoided the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern Red Sea, following a naval blockade declared by Yemen’s Houthi movement against Saudi Arabia.
With imports growing more slowly than exports, Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to roughly ¥536.6 billion (about $3.4 billion), down from close to ¥1.1 trillion in August. The gap was still far wider than the ¥181 billion shortfall economists had penciled in.
Japanese officials expect crude procurement to return to close to last year’s levels in October as tankers rerouted via the Suez Canal begin arriving, which would push the energy import bill back up.
The Bank of Japan concludes its next policy meeting on 30 October, when it will release updated growth and inflation projections. Most economists expect the central bank’s next rate increase in December.
Why it matters for markets: Sustained export strength, even with growth below forecasts, supports the case for continued Bank of Japan policy tightening, a factor relevant for USD/JPY. The temporary nature of the narrower trade gap, driven by delayed oil shipments rather than weaker demand, means Middle East shipping routes and crude prices remain a key variable for Japan’s trade balance and the yen in coming months.
Sources: Investing.com (economy); Investing.com (economy); investingLive