The same five parts, every note.

Markets head into the week with the US dollar index firm near its 52-week high of 102.94 and gold under heavy pressure after a 3.4% weekly decline [1]. UK inflation surprised to the upside in September, headline CPI at 3.5% and core at 2.8%, cementing bets on a Bank of England rate hike on 5 November [2][3][4]. Japan's core CPI returned above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since December, at 2.1%, with the core-core gauge jumping to 2.4% [5][6]. Eurozone business activity slowed more than expected in October, with the composite PMI falling to 51.9 [7]. Oil has risen sharply on Middle East supply fears, with WTI near $103 and Brent above $114 [8].

The coming week tests whether major central banks keep tightening even as growth signals soften. The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy rate at 4.00% on Wednesday after a run of resilient data, including a US flash services PMI of 57.9 and a hot September eurozone PPI backdrop [9][10][11]. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold rates at its October meeting while possibly raising its inflation forecast, even as a Reuters poll points to a hike to 1.50% in December [12][13][14]. The European Central Bank meets with its refinancing rate seen unchanged at 2.65% [11], while the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor has flagged an inflation outlook "materially worse" than forecast ahead of Wednesday's CPI data [15][16][17]. UK Chancellor John Healey's Autumn Budget on 28 October adds a fiscal dimension just ahead of the BoE's November decision [4][11].

EUR/USD closed at 1.1204, below both its 50-day (1.1363) and 200-day (1.1524) moving averages, with nearest support at 1.1161 and resistance at 1.1269 [1]. USD/JPY closed at 156.82, also below its moving averages, with support at 156.35 and resistance at 158.94 [1]. Gold (XAU/USD) closed at 3,994, down 3.4% over the week, with RSI at 30 and support at 3,961 [1]. WTI crude closed at 103.27, up 11.8% over four weeks and trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, with resistance at 106.75 [1]. The S&P 500 closed at 7,624, inside a range between support at 7,508 and resistance at 7,772, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00%, down 8 basis points over the week [1].

A Federal Reserve statement or press conference that signals a firmer path for December tightening, rather than the steady hold markets expect, could add further support to the dollar and pressure gold and EUR/USD [18][9]. A Bank of Japan decision that goes beyond a simple inflation-forecast upgrade, or renewed board dissent as seen in September, would matter for USD/JPY and JGB yields [12][13][19]. A stronger-than-expected Australian CPI print on 28 October would raise the odds of an RBA hike on 3 November, a factor already supporting AUD/USD [16][15]. Daily closes beyond the reference levels in [1], such as EUR/USD through 1.1269 or 1.1161, or gold through 3,961, would mark a shift from the current ranges.

Tue 27 Oct, 14:00 GMT: US CB Consumer Confidence (consensus 80.5, prior 81.9).
Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT: Australia CPI y/y (consensus 4.2%, prior 4.0%) and Trimmed Mean CPI m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%).
Wed 28 Oct, 12:30 GMT: UK Autumn Budget and Forecast Statement.
Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate decision (consensus 2.50%, prior 2.25%).
Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate (consensus 4.00%, prior 4.00%), followed by press conference.
Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT: US Advance GDP q/q (consensus 3.2%, prior 1.5%) and Core PCE Price Index m/m (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%).
Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT: ECB Monetary Policy Statement, Main Refinancing Rate (consensus 2.65%, prior 2.65%), and press conference.
Fri 30 Oct, 02:30 GMT: BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Policy Rate decision, followed by Outlook Report and press conference.
Fri 30 Oct, 06:29 GMT: German Prelim CPI m/m (consensus 0.1%, prior 0.6%).

1. Daily prices: EODHD and Yahoo Finance; trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis
2. FXStreet: British Pound holds gains above 1.3400 as hot CPI data fuels BoE rate hike bets
3. FXStreet: British Pound: BoE hike prospects underpin resilience – MUFG
4. CNBC (economy): UK inflation jumps to 3.5% — cementing rate hike expectations
5. investingLive: Japan core inflation tops BoJ’s 2% target for first time since December, yen firms
6. Economic Times Markets: Global Market: Japan’s core inflation accelerates, putting BOJ rate hikes in focus
7. investingLive: Eurozone October PMI misses estimates as growth slows, keeping ECB rate hike dilemma alive
8. Economic Times Markets: Oil Price Today (October 23): Crude oil ticks over $114, jumps nearly 8% this week as energy attacks intensify. What are experts saying?
9. investingLive: US S&P Global flash October services PMI 57.9 vs 58.0 expected
10. investingLive: German producer prices hit highest since March 2023 as energy costs soar, fueling inflation worries
11. Praevis economic calendar
12. FXStreet: BoJ to leave rates steady, raise inflation forecast in October meeting – Reuters
13. Investing.com (economy): BOJ to raise rates to 1.50% in December, sticking to quarterly pace: Reuters poll
14. investingLive: BOJ reportedly may upgrade inflation forecast, hold rates steady at next week's meeting
15. Investing.com (economy): Australia inflation outlook ‘materially worse’, RBA deputy Hauser says
16. FXStreet: Australian Dollar: RBA expectations support Aussie against US Dollar – Commerzbank
17. investingLive: RBA’s Hauser says inflation outlook worse than forecast ahead of 3 November decision
18. FXStreet: US S&P Global PMI expected to signal slower business activity in October
19. Economic Times Markets: Global Market: Japanese bond yields fall to multiweek lows ahead of BOJ meeting

US stocks ended a turbulent week lower, with the Nasdaq Composite closing at 25,986.76 and the S&P 500 at 7,634.09 on Friday after touching five-week troughs during the session [1]. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.25% over the week even as it held up better than tech-heavy gauges [2]. The selloff was concentrated in AI-linked names: the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index has now erased roughly a quarter of its value since its June 22 record close [3], and Nasdaq breadth was negative, with 1,734 decliners against 1,471 advancers [4]. Meta Platforms fell sharply after disclosing its first negative free cash flow in more than a decade due to AI spending [3][1], while Tesla trimmed its 2026 capital expenditure outlook despite beating profit estimates [5][6].

Renewed scrutiny of AI capital spending sits at the centre of this week's picture, following warnings from UBS that capex guidance, not headline earnings, would drive market reaction this season [7]. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued hedge funds have already reduced equity exposure enough to limit further downside, even as the semiconductor index posted its steepest one-day drop since June [8]. The AI selloff also pushed investors into Treasuries, with 2-to-10-year yields falling by at least 15 basis points in their sharpest single-day move in over a year, and the 10-year yield dipping below 5% [9][10]. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 194,000, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its meeting [11][12]. Oil prices climbed toward a five-month high after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian targets, adding to inflation concerns the Fed must weigh [3][1].

The S&P 500 closed at 7,624, down 0.5% over one week and 1.5% over four weeks, sitting 1.0% below its rising 50-day moving average of 7,700 but still 4.6% above its 200-day average of 7,291 [13]. Nearest support lies at 7,508, with resistance at 7,772; the daily RSI of 42 reflects the recent pullback from the 52-week high of 7,845 set on October 6 [13]. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 28,958, down 5.4% over four weeks and trading 2.9% below its 50-day average of 29,829, with support at 28,815 and an RSI of 37 [13]. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.00%, down 8 basis points over the week, with support at 4.92% and resistance at 5.04% [13].

A daily close by the S&P 500 back above its 50-day moving average near 7,700, or by the Nasdaq 100 above its 50-day average near 29,829, would suggest the AI-driven selloff is losing momentum [13]. Signs that major AI capital spenders are curbing outlays while sustaining revenue growth, rather than disclosing further cash-flow strain, would also ease concerns raised by Meta's results [3][14]. Conversely, a Federal Reserve statement signalling a more hawkish rate path than markets expect, or a daily close by the 10-year yield above its 5.04% resistance, would reinforce pressure on tech-heavy benchmarks [13][9]. Further credit stress at AI infrastructure financiers such as CoreWeave, or additional capex disappointments from upcoming megacap earnings, would also weigh on sentiment [1][8].

United States CB Consumer Confidence, Tuesday 27 October 14:00 GMT [15].
Federal Reserve FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate decision and press conference, Wednesday 28 October 18:00-18:30 GMT [15].
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate decision and press conference, Wednesday 28 October 13:45-14:30 GMT [15].
United States Unemployment Claims, Advance GDP q/q and Core PCE Price Index m/m, Thursday 29 October 12:30 GMT [15].
European Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement and press conference, Thursday 29 October 13:15-13:45 GMT [15].
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement and press conference, Friday 30 October 02:30-05:30 GMT [15].
United States Employment Cost Index q/q, Friday 30 October 12:30 GMT [15].
Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are expected during the week [2][16][17].

1. Economic Times Markets: Why US stocks are falling: Dow Jones crashes over 700 points as AI selloff, SpaceX fears hit markets
2. Economic Times Markets: US Markets Today: Dow ends 600 pts lower as AI doubts persist ahead of Fed meet
3. Economic Times Markets: US stocks today: Nasdaq slumps 2.5%, S&P 1% as revived AI doubts ignite tech selloff
4. investingLive: Nasdaq sinks as chip stocks tumble
5. Economic Times Markets: Tesla shares slip as capex cut clouds Musk’s AI, robotics ambitions
6. investingLive: Tesla Q3 earnings beat as margins and cash flow surprise, revenue narrowly misses
7. investingLive: UBS flags 3 tests for the AI trade as Meta kicks off mega-cap tech earnings
8. investingLive: JPMorgan sees hedge fund de-risking limiting stock downside, with chips the key gauge
9. Economic Times Markets: Treasuries see best day in over a year as AI selloff revives haven demand
10. MarketWatch: ‘AI is on trial’: Bond yields sink below 5% as investors look for safety
11. Economic Times Markets: US stocks today: US stocks slide as AI spending jitters hit Nasdaq, oil prices rebound
12. Yahoo Finance: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures tumble as oil climbs, investors weigh Tesla, Meta earnings
13. Daily prices: EODHD and Yahoo Finance; trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis
14. investingLive: Meta Q3 beats on revenue and EPS as $9.9B legal charge lifts full-year expense outlook
15. Praevis economic calendar
16. Economic Times Markets: Wall Street Week Ahead: Earnings flood, Fed meeting will test rickety AI market rally
17. investingLive: Biggest earnings week ahead: Can Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon turn the Nasdaq tide? Or will the ships sink?

Gold (XAU/USD) closed at $3,994 on Friday, its weakest level in two months, after trading near $4,025 in Asian hours earlier in the week [1][2]. The metal fell for a third straight session mid-week as silver extended gains and the gold-silver ratio slipped [3]. Pressure has come from a surge in oil prices tied to attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz, which has lifted inflation expectations just as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet [1][4][5]. Indian traders on the MCX also saw gold and silver prices fall repeatedly through the week as participants positioned for the Fed decision [6][7][8].

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00%, up 47 basis points versus its 200-day average, while the US Dollar Index closed at 101.75, above both its 50-day and 200-day averages [2]. Higher real yields and a firmer dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion [1][7]. Yet a steep AI-related equity selloff drove the sharpest one-day Treasury rally in over a year on Friday, with traders also scaling back December rate-hike bets, a shift that could support gold if it persists [9]. Central banks added 79 tonnes of gold in August, nearly five times the typical pace, led by China, according to Goldman Sachs, a trend Goldman calls a lasting structural shift rather than a short-lived spike [10]. That buying has partly offset Russia's tenth consecutive monthly reserve sale, which took its holdings to their lowest since 2019 [11]. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, with US and Israeli officials reportedly planning potential strikes on Iran after the midterm elections and after Israel's October 27 vote, while Iran has threatened to widen retaliation to Saudi energy and data infrastructure [12][13]. Gold ETF holdings have bucked the recent price weakness to reach 2026 highs, according to Heraeus [14].

Gold's daily trend is down, with the close under both the 50-day moving average of $4,230 and the 200-day average of $4,352, sitting 8.2% below the longer average [2]. The 14-day RSI at 30 is close to oversold territory, and the close is 3.4% lower over the past week and 3.5% lower over four weeks [2]. Nearest support sits at $3,961, then $3,942, which also marks the 52-week low; nearest resistance is at $4,120, then $4,166 [2]. On the weekly chart, the close sits below both the 10-week average of $4,298 and the 40-week average of $4,498 [2]. The most recent confirmed swing high was $4,217 on October 12, while the 52-week high stands far above at $5,419 [2].

A daily close back above the $4,120 resistance, or above the 50-day moving average near $4,230, would ease the near-term downward pressure described by the current chart setup [2]. A pullback in US Treasury yields below the 4.92% support level, or a softer dollar, would reduce the opportunity-cost argument weighing on bullion [2]. Confirmation that central-bank buying, particularly from China, continued into October, alongside sustained ETF inflows, would reinforce the structural demand case [10][14]. Conversely, a de-escalation of the Iran-Saudi standoff that eases oil prices could reduce the safe-haven and inflation-premium support for gold [1][4].

FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate and press conference, Wednesday October 28, 18:00-18:30 GMT [15].
Euro area Monetary Policy Statement, Main Refinancing Rate and ECB press conference, Thursday October 29, 13:15-13:45 GMT [15].
US Core PCE Price Index, Advance GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims, Thursday October 29, 12:30 GMT [15].
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement, Policy Rate and press conference, Friday October 30, 02:30-05:30 GMT [15].
US CB Consumer Confidence, Tuesday October 27, 14:00 GMT [15].
Israel's election, October 27, cited in reporting on Iran strike planning [12].
Possible US-Israel military action against Iran once Pentagon deployments conclude in early November [12].

1. FXStreet: Gold falls to two‑month low below $4,050 as oil spikes
2. Daily prices: EODHD and Yahoo Finance; trend, levels and RSI computed by Praevis
3. Kitco News: Gold falls for a third straight session as silver extends gains and the gold-silver ratio slips
4. OilPrice.com: Iran Claims Seven Ships Hit in Persian Gulf as Oil Prices Surge
5. Economic Times Markets: Oil Price Today (October 23): Crude oil ticks over $114, jumps nearly 8% this week as energy attacks intensify. What are experts saying?
6. Economic Times Markets: Gold price falls Rs 2,000/10 gram; silver plunges Rs 6,000/kg as traders eye US Fed meet next week. Buy, sell or hold?
7. Economic Times Markets: Gold prices near Rs 1.47 lakh/10 grams, silver falls by Rs 1,144/kg as traders await Fed rate signals. What lies ahead?
8. Economic Times Markets: Gold price falls Rs 1,500/10g; silver plunges Rs 7,000/kg as soaring oil fuels rate hike bets. Time to sell?
9. Economic Times Markets: Treasuries see best day in over a year as AI selloff revives haven demand
10. Mining.com: Central banks pile into gold as China leads buying spree
11. Kitco News: Russia sells 6.2 tonnes of gold in September as bullion reserves fall to lowest level since 2019
12. Investing.com (economy): U.S., Israel prepare for renewed Iran strikes after midterm elections - NYT
13. OilPrice.com: Egypt Moves to Defend Saudi Arabia as Iran War Threatens to Widen
14. Kitco News: Gold and silver prices pressured by hot inflation, but gold ETF holdings buck trend to hit 2026 highs – Heraeus
15. Praevis economic calendar