Silver falls to 12-month low near $48.6, Commerzbank calls drop overdone
Silver fell to $48.6 a troy ounce, its weakest level in nearly a year, pushing the gold/silver ratio up to 80. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said the slide looks exaggerated given strong import demand from India and China.
Fritsch pointed out that silver has not traded this cheap against gold since late November 2025, and that there is no single metal-specific cause behind the latest weakness. Instead, he linked the move to a broader pullback in technology shares, which has stirred worries about industrial demand for silver, and to pressure on base metal prices, since roughly half of silver demand comes from industrial users.
Despite that, Fritsch argued the retreat does not match underlying fundamentals. He noted that India has cleared the import of large volumes of silver over the coming months, while Chinese customs data show imports up almost 50% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2024 — the highest for that stretch in eight years and already above all of last year’s total.
He said this points to firmer Chinese demand for silver, whether for photovoltaic manufacturing, other industrial uses or investment purposes.
Why it matters for markets: Silver’s slide to a 12-month low and the jump in the gold/silver ratio to 80 signal diverging sentiment between the two precious metals. Shifts in industrial demand readings from China and India, alongside swings in tech and base-metal prices, can influence silver (XAG/USD) positioning and spill over into broader precious-metals sentiment, including gold (XAU/USD).
Source: FXStreet