Japan set to reclaim top LNG importer spot from China in 2026
Japan is on track to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas importer this year for the first time since 2022, as China's well-stocked storage lets it buy less amid elevated prices.
Consultancies ICIS and Kpler put Japan’s 2026 LNG imports slightly ahead of China’s. ICIS estimates Japan will bring in 62 million metric tons versus 61 million for China, while Kpler forecasts 63 million tons for Japan against 62 million for China.
China took the top importer position in 2021, lost it to Japan in 2022 during pandemic-era lockdowns, then reclaimed it in 2023 and held the lead until now. The shift back this year follows a sharp drop in Chinese demand for spot cargoes.
That pullback stems from disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz, which halted LNG shipments from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and pushed spot prices higher across Asia. Chinese buyers had already moved early to fill storage during the Iran conflict, leaving underground gas inventories 80% full by the end of September, according to Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei.
With China needing fewer additional cargoes this winter, other Asian and European buyers facing tight supply and intense competition for non-Hormuz volumes could see some relief. Japan, meanwhile, cut gas-fired power generation in favor of coal this summer as LNG prices climbed to a four-year high in Asia.
Shifts in LNG demand between the world’s two largest importers affect global gas pricing and supply flows, which in turn influence energy costs, inflation expectations and currencies of major exporting nations.
Source: OilPrice.com