Rabobank strategist Bas van Geffen says the ECB held rates steady but President Christine Lagarde hinted at a further hike in December, to be followed by a pause as the bank's leadership changes.
Christine Lagarde has told the ECB Governing Council and European Council President António Costa she intends to leave the central bank's presidency on 7 February 2027, triggering a hunt for her replacement.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday after two hikes earlier in 2026, even as eurozone inflation runs at 3.8%. The decision matters for EUR/USD, which has fallen toward 17-month lows.
EUR/USD has climbed back toward 1.1150 after revisiting its October 14 trough near 1.1100 on Wednesday, breaking a five-day losing run ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank announcement.
Policymakers are expected to leave the deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday, with Morgan Stanley pointing to December as the more likely point for a further move. The decision matters for EUR/USD, eurozone bonds and the euro's path into year-end.