Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ANZ have switched to forecasting a fifth 2026 rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week, joining Westpac's existing call. Markets are now debating whether a further move follows in February.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said renewed Middle East conflict has pushed energy prices well above the central bank's August assumptions, lifting the inflation outlook ahead of next week's rate decision.
Australia's annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.3% in September from 4.0% in August, beating the 4.2% forecast, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed. The figure lifted the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.
AUD/USD slipped 0.24% to around 0.7015 on Monday after touching a one-month high, as traders braced for Australian inflation data on Wednesday and the Fed's rate decision the same day.
Large Chinese industrial companies saw profits climb 14.4% from a year earlier in September, a sharp turnaround from August's 4.2% gain, official figures show. The data carry implications for Chinese stocks and commodity-tied currencies.
AUD/USD rose to its strongest point since late September after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said price pressures looked "materially worse" than anticipated, according to Commerzbank's Norman Liebke, as traders sharply lifted hike expectations.
Andrew Hauser, the Reserve Bank of Australia's second-in-command, told a Sydney investment gathering that price growth is tracking above the bank's own projections, a hawkish signal ahead of next month's rate meeting that could move the Australian dollar.