Risk warning CFDs are complex instruments. 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs.

Module 13 — Backtesting and Performance Analysis

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About Course

Module 13 has 28 lessons on measuring a strategy honestly before you risk money. Sources: MetaQuotes’ MT5 Strategy Tester documentation, research on overfitting (Bailey et al., 2014), multiple testing (Harvey, Liu and Zhu), survivorship bias (Carhart, Carpenter, Lynch and Musto, 2002) and the Sharpe ratio (Sharpe, 1994), plus StockCharts on the Ulcer Index. Sample-size figures come from course simulations, described where they are used.

Level: Advanced · Before this: Module 12.

Course Content

Part 1 — Testing methods

  • Lesson 13.1 — What backtesting is
  • Lesson 13.2 — Backtest, paper trading, forward test and live
  • Lesson 13.3 — Manual backtesting with bar replay
  • Lesson 13.4 — What data you need
  • Lesson 13.5 — Data quality
  • Lesson 13.6 — MT5 Strategy Tester modelling modes
  • Lesson 13.7 — Modelling costs and slippage

Part 2 — Biases and errors

Part 3 — Performance metrics

Part 4 — Statistics and decisions

Module quiz and sources

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