Risk warning
CFDs are complex instruments. 74–89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs.
HIGH IMPACT
United States · Wed 12:30 GMT · Sample event
US CPI, August
PRIOR
2.7%
CONSENSUS
2.9%
ACTUAL
3.3%
Headline CPI, year on year. Core: 3.0%, in line. Figures are sample data for this design.
BEFORE THE NUMBER · TUE 16:00 GMT
What to read first
Headline CPI includes food and energy; core excludes them and is what the Fed watches. Shelter makes up a large share of the index and moves slowly, so it can keep the headline high after other prices cool.
- Headline against the 2.9% consensus.
- Core against its consensus — the number that changes rate expectations.
- The month-on-month change, which shows the current pace.
FIRST HOUR · WED 12:58 GMT
Hotter headline, calmer core, and a dollar bid
Headline CPI rose 3.3 percent against 2.9 percent expected. Core came in at 3.0 percent, in line. Shelter accounted for most of the upside; goods prices fell for the fourth month.
The dollar strengthened immediately and the two-year Treasury yield added 9 basis points. Equity futures dipped, then recovered as the core reading tempered the headline.
The reaction
EUR/USD, five-minute steps, 11:30–13:30 GMT. Illustrative path.
Affected markets, first 30 minutes
EUR/USD−40 pips
US 2-year yield+9 bp
USD/JPYthrough 157.50
December Fed cut odds52% → 38%
Lessons behind this event
RISK DISCLAIMER
Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Praevis publishes education and market commentary. Nothing here is investment advice.