Goldman Sachs: tanker rates surge could push Brent above $90 forecast
Global oil freight costs have jumped to about $20 a barrel from $3 a barrel a year ago, Goldman Sachs says, warning that elevated shipping costs tied to the Iran conflict and Hormuz tensions add upside risk to its $90 Brent forecast for year-end.
The bank’s commodity analysts said rates on Middle East routes have climbed even higher, reaching $35 a barrel, as the region’s shipping crisis shows no clear sign of easing.
Goldman broke down the cost increase into three components: a $7-a-barrel war-risk premium for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, $4 a barrel from higher fuel costs, and another $4 a barrel linked to ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Those transfers are keeping a large number of tankers tied up in shuttle operations, cutting the number of vessels free for other routes.
Supertanker rates on the Gulf-to-East Asia route hit a record above $1.4 million a day in early October, as the conflict involving Iran forced ships onto longer and less efficient paths. Goldman noted that the resulting squeeze on supertanker availability has spilled over into smaller vessel classes, with Aframax and Suezmax tankers also seeing higher demand and rates as shippers look for alternatives.
In its note, cited by Bloomberg, Goldman said sustained high freight costs, combined with the risk of further attacks on shipping or damage to oil infrastructure, could keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices for longer than currently assumed. The bank said this points to “upside risk” to its Brent forecast of $90 a barrel by year-end.
Why it matters for markets: Higher tanker rates raise the delivered cost of crude even without a change in production, which can support Brent and WTI crude prices. Persistent shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz also keeps a geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, with knock-on effects for energy-sensitive currencies and inflation expectations.
Source: OilPrice.com